Saturday, November 17, 2007

People should just listen.....

I don't really understand how people can just ignore the things around them and think their life is just peachy. Do these people not listen? Let me give you some background as to why I might bring this up, and then we will move into whether I think people really know what they are hearing or how to apply it to their lives. I have been anti-war from the day after 9/11 and have stated many times to friends and family that the pretenses used for the war were lies, to which they just replied I was being unpatriotic or paranoid. Fast forward 6 years and now everyone knows that the weapons of mass destruction and the "War on Terror" are shams, and yet no one contests what they are hearing. Instead you have all these news anchors spouting that "everyone" was fooled and "everyone" agreed with the reasons for war. I'm sorry, but I know for a fact that Bushes approval rating never broke 90%, so I guess that 10% doesn't count in the term "everyone".

My question isn't that why aren't these people being asked to make their opinions known, but rather why we still listen to the morons who tricked the majority of the people into thinking the way the government wanted them to think? Many just sit their complacent to the media, not even paying attention to the fact that these same people LIED to them some years earlier. Even someone such as John Stewart has become less critical of the government and his fellow journalists. It astonishes me that someone could be so uncritical of information at one point, then be told they need to be more critical and that people lie, and then continue to be completely uncritical! This is one of those confusing posts that doesn't really have a point, but just something that I need to say.

The fallout from all these problems and peoples misunderstanding of current situations and opinions, is that they get themselves stuck in a rut where the only thing they have to look forward to is the nightly news which will just continue to lie to them and spew misinformation onto its own people. These events will affect the market and make it an inhospitable environment as analysts are using the news to lie to the people and keep them in a state of fear and indecision. They are turning the common investor into a sheep, and preventing the economy from recovering. Let the market run its course, and the companies will be punished accordingly. Instilling fear into people is a good way to increase market volatility over the long term, and can prevent proper healing. Just take a breath and THINK before acting, LISTEN to the information being spat at you, and ASK the questions that matter, not whether or not Brittney will get her kids back from K Fed!

It's almost embarrassing to be considered the typical American that the news makes us feel like. The media is trying to confuse people into thinking the thoughts they had previously didn't really exist. Trying to tell me that I didn't think the way I thought, but instead that I was one of the sheep. STOP FEEDING THEM! You need to start being skeptical of the media and these politicians as they will LIE to you repeatedly in order to keep you off balance and to make you second guess yourself. Don't be fooled any longer and this will end properly, instead of the fairytale ending the government is predicting for itself.

Friday, November 16, 2007

New Tools!

So in my search to make investing that much easier on myself, and in the long term make my picks much more accurate and helpful to my wealth I have discovered a very nice tool written by Ravi Bhavnani whose website is listed above. The tools name is takestock and has some very easy to use features and is extremely customizable! Just thought I would share that with any of you who may read this as it is already making tracking upcoming purchases and sales that much easier. Maybe I will do a more comprehensive review later on, but as for right now I must say I am pleasantly surprised as this kind of software is hard to find (and even harder to find free and good!) This software does need some work, but he is definately on the right track!

As for the markets today I'm happy to report I beat the market with my CAPS today but the portfolio suffered slightly. I would really like people out there to just calm down take a breath and evaluate their positions before acting like the mob they are. Such irrational behavior, though I guess that is to be expected from humans. The market was pretty bland for today so I don't really have anymore updates for you right now. Keep up with your research and I may have some news on Monday depending how things start to move around right before the thanksgiving break. Cyber Monday anyone!

Thursday, November 15, 2007

A new direction?

I've always enjoyed the stock market and the economy in general and maybe now is the time for me to start blogging about that (maybe even posting on a regular basis, what a new concept). The only problem is, I'm just a normal investor, I have no pull like an analyst or portfolio manager. But maybe that isn't such a bad thing. You don't see too many average investors posting their experience or their economic outlooks on the internet (unless you are a member of Motley Fool's CAPS program). Well lets run with this and see where it takes us. I can't really be held responsible for anything I say here whether it be a recommendation or my point of view.

To start lets just get together and try and figure out what tools are available at your disposal to make you a more refined and informed investor. I think there are some great free tools out there that can definitely help you along your journey and I highly recommend and use them on a regular basis. First off lets talk about the newest service I have joined, and that is CAPS by the Motley Fool. The site can be found at caps.fool.com and is really a community based recommendation and grading tool. You can add favorite investors and analysts and see how their choices are playing out relative to the greater market. You can also make picks and write pitches as to why you think a certain stock is a good pick, or a bad one. The whole concept is pretty neat and for anyone who has ever invested a little money into the market the whole process should be very familiar. They also have a myriad of tools like charts and all the ratios you could ever want (very handy for some quick research).

The second thing I would recommend doing is finding a broker that fits you. There are tons of options out there when it comes to investing and not one broker can be all things to all people. Personally I use Sharebuilder right now as its dollar based investing option is a decent feature and makes investing on a budget very easy. They also have varying plans for the level of investments you will be making, with up to 20 free scheduled trades a month and real time trades as low as 11.95. Other great choices are Charles Schwab which will provide more of a personal broker feel in that they will make recommendations and have a top notch staff working to make the whole process very easy. There is no initial limit, so again can be used for first time investors, though their interface and tools may be more advanced than many are ready for. I have not had any experience with the other brokers, but just search for one, and I'm sure you'll find something you like.

So, now that you have all that stuff sorted out, I guess you are ready to start picking stocks. Ok good, now that you're listening, ignore what I just said. Why you might ask should you ignore picking stocks and investing your cash right now? Simple, the market is having some major issues right now, and heading into the fourth quarter where earnings are never particularly spectacular will only exaggerate the problems. This is not to say that you should not invest, but that you need to be much more careful than under normal market conditions as it will be very easy to pick solid companies that will lose you money over the short term. This is a great time to find bargains, however! There are plenty of companies out there that are showing good signs of value and bottoming out may be occurring in several areas of the market, though as a whole I think we have a lot more left to give before things start to right themselves.

There are lots of ways of picking stocks that are right for your portfolio, and me not being an experienced investor can only continue to learn from mistakes and research. Some of the things that I find helpful, at least at this point in my life, are Bollinger Bands, logarithmic scaling, and the MACD. All of these features are used to help me figure out the current market trends for that item and also let me choose an appropriate time to buy and sell. None of this is a perfect science, but with the right tools and outlook, and some decent common sense and a lot of luck I have been able to stay well ahead of the market this year without writing too many sales (which is my greatest weakness).

You will make mistakes as you move through investing, I know I have made plenty but I still believe that as I become more accustomed to investing and this changing economy I will be more and more successful. Once I have mastered my fear of selling and really taking the time to track and do things right, I will be in a much better position to maintain my own fortunes as they progress.

Good luck and happy investing!

Some things to look out for:
ITB - I believe this etf is very close to bottoming out, it has been hanging around the $19 for quite some time now (the lower end of the Bollinger Band, how convenient for us). I see this slipping maybe another dollar into the low 18s, but as people begin to rebuild their confidence and the builders start to move inventory on better loans we will see this stock performing at its correct levels of about 40 dollars. (Part of my current portfolio)

PCU - One of my favorites and a company I have invested in personally. This is a high dividend paying stock that has been hit irrationally hard during this last correction. Down from 140 to around 100 in less than a month, this stock to me currently represents a good buy. With their high dividends and great margins this is a good choice for someone with some patience. The world stockpiles will go down over time and the demand will increase because of it, riding this company will net some decent gains! (Part of my current portfolio)

MKL - The one stock on this list that I am still not sure about yet. All the things I read and all the numbers I look at say this is a Berkshire-esque company and their investment team is top notch. The only thing I can't decide on is a good price to buy this company. My gut says buy, and I know I will probably end up listening to it, but I am not going to be afraid if this stock slips below the bands for a while. It is hugging the bottom band like a blankee and I think it may drop to maybe 430 or so before the market is done toying with people. I think this company will make up most of my retirement portfolio in the next couple of years and I can definately see potential in this model.

Cash - Though not a stock, this is definately a safe bet moving into these winter months if you are a little more conservative and concerned with your savings. There is however, the concern of the weakening dollar, and holding straight cash might not net you very much. I definately suggest a money market fund from your broker or even sites like paypal.com who offer decent returns af over 4%. (Part of my current portfolio)

IPO Watch

Visa - Watch out for this IPO, it might be a very nice one for many people. One of the largest IPO's in history, if this follows suit with Master Card there is definitely some money to be made!

Symetra - Whenever this gets to market (I completely respect their decision to stay out until the volatility ends) it will be a great pick. With the backing of Buffett, large product offering and customer base, I can see how this is a top pick for many.

Saturday, September 29, 2007

The Wider View

So again, I think I am long overdue with my blogging. I don't know what it is about this, but I never seem to be able to keep up with it, as if I don't think it's important or necessary. Quite the contrary in reality, this is a very important venue for me to express myself and my writing. I do hope that if anyone ever reads this, they find my style and content to be entertaining to say the least. So with that out of the way, I have upgraded a few times since my last post. The 15 inch viewable is no longer so small, it is now 2 20" wide screen viewable!

I finally dropped the bomb with Circuit City, and all has gone very well. After 17 months of working with that company, I cut the ties and moved on. My new job is so much more exciting and challenging than my previous work. I don't know how much I can actually say about the work, but what I can tell you, is that I will be having a blast working with this company and I will learn tremendous amounts of new information, as well as practical skills. The systems at the new place are amazing, and the people are even cooler.

This is a great upgrade from my previous work, and while I will miss the City, I do understand that if I stayed there any longer, I was either going to go absolutely insane, or I was going to start performing differently under the pressure of my position. It was a good time to move on, I will still shop and show my support for the company and the people, but I will never again work in retail, and you can bet on that!

So weekends, and school, Halo 3 and work. This is my life as of the moment and if I were to take a snapshot right now, I would not have thought I would be in the position I am now, 6 months ago. I am so proud of where I am and where I am going, I may be slowing down, but I am getting what I want, and what I need and the experience of getting there is making up for everything in between. I am also writing this on my new Linux laptop, running the latest beta of Gutsy Gibbon, which I must say, is very impressive.

It is amazing how far Linux has moved in the years it has been in the public eye. I think given 1 or 2 more years of devoted development, we will be seeing these systems in retail outlets, ready for complete public dissemination. Oh the future is bright, and I hope my incoherent ramblings have at least entertained the masses and the few (if any of you) that read this. Peace out girl scout!

Monday, March 12, 2007

Long Overdue Entries

A lot has happened since the last time I wrote to the world and let everyone know what was going on. Well lets start things off with current events. We moved off of campus and into a really nice town home in my hometown. I say we, being Alex, and his girlfriend Sarah, Derek, and Jim! We have wuite the full house really, but the place is nice and roomy and fits our personalities well. I've been installing our home theatre all day (getting all the wires and everything into the walls), and finished up with the front speaker hookups today. I probably wont be able to work on the rest of the project until next week, as I have finals this week, and I really just need a break from doing work.
Speaking of work, since the last time I wrote, we have switched managers again. This time it was an internal switch, we got Diane, and Entertainment got Siavosh (a pretty good trade for us, jp C). Work has been going great, I got my MCP cert and I'm working on my second test for Vista now, and should have that in the coming months.
Wow, I hate to end this so abruptly, but I am so tired right now I can't even come up with a good ending for this, so goodnite!